We’ve been locked into this convention for so long that we simply forgot to challenge the assumptions.
油价上涨对中国经济的影响取决于伊朗局势的发展，核心问题在于霍尔木兹海峡何时能够恢复畅通、原油运输何时能够恢复正常。如果霍尔木兹海峡封锁在未来一至两周内解除，影响将微乎其微；如果封锁持续3个月、半年甚至一年，则将对包括中国在内的全球经济产生重大影响。综合各方利益分析，霍尔木兹海峡完全封锁的状态大概率难以持久。
。业内人士推荐新收录的资料作为进阶阅读
cd Shadowbroker
Nature, Published online: 04 March 2026; doi:10.1038/s41586-025-10091-1
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